Back to top. Deep, immediate cuts to global emissions would modestly reduce the danger posed by rising seas this century. The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. Box 3 (below) details caveats and limitations for this report’s findings. Read More, Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise… Box 4. Remote Sensing of Environment 206, 231–239 (2018). Climate Central just completed a novel analysis of worldwide exposure to sea level rise and coastal flooding. Methodology: CoastalDEM (Kulp and Strauss 2018) is a new digital elevation model based on SRTM 3.0, a near-global dataset derived from satellite radar during a NASA mission in 2000. NSW Government policy Guidance on the NSW framework for managing existing and future coastal management issues, including those related to climate change and sea level rise, is outlined here . Lett. Risk Finder includes projections, analysis, and downloadable graphics and reports for every coastal city, county, and state -- and more -- in the contiguous U.S. Next, consider India’s situation in 2050. 2016), allowing the analysis to combine the water heights of such flood events with projected sea level rise when identifying areas at high risk. This clouds understanding of where and when sea level rise could affect coastal communities in the most vulnerable parts of the world. Kulp, S. A. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, custom data acquired via website. Climate Central converted elevation data to reference local mean higher-high water levels (roughly, high tide lines, derived using satellite measurements of sea surface heights and using global tidal models), and compared these elevations to sea level rise projections (Kopp et al. URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425711000678. Source: World Meteorological Organization / Flickr, New elevation data show that by midcentury frequent coastal flooding will rise higher than areas currently home to hundreds of millions of people, As a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, rising sea levels could within three decades push chronic floods higher than land currently home to 300 million people, By 2100, areas now home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line, The new figures are the result of an improved global elevation dataset produced by Climate Central using machine learning, and revealing that coastal elevations are significantly lower than previously understood across wide areas, The threat is concentrated in coastal Asia and could have profound economic and political consequences within the lifetimes of people alive today, Findings are documented in a new peer-reviewed paper in the journal Nature Communications. Commun. 18. “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2019, 201817205; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 Story By: Climate Central Data from: Climate Central, USGC, Google. Check out the resources below to learn more about sea-level rise in South Florida and beyond. 7. Sea level rise model: Kopp et al. The most recent special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise … Global warming has raised global sea level about 8" since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Sea level rise is a game of millimeters a year, but those millimeters add up to a huge amount of water entering the world’s oceans. Special Thanks. Sea level rise could have wide-ranging political consequences. In the decades ahead, sea level rise could disrupt economies and trigger humanitarian crises around the world. After a period of approximately 2,000 years of little change (not shown here), global average sea level rose throughout the 20 th century, and the rate of change has accelerated in recent years. 11. The consequences range from near-term increases in coastal flooding that can damage infrastructure and crops to the permanent displacement of coastal communities. To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. General Disclaimer & Legal Terms Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. 12 064009 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3/meta Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges. The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. If governments seek to limit future impacts from ocean flooding, they could also avoid new construction in areas at high risk of inundation, while protecting, relocating, or abandoning existing infrastructure and settlements. Remote Sensing of Environment 115, 1576–1587 (2011). (Even the country’s most infamous refugee crisis could be exacerbated by sea level rise: in recent years, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya people have fled violence in neighboring Myanmar, many settling in the low-lying region south of Chittagong—an area that could itself be vulnerable to at-least-annual ocean flooding by 2050, projections based on CoastalDEM show.). URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717306016. Global data on protective features such as levees and seawalls are not publicly available, so those features, which reduce exposure to sea level rise, are not incorporated into this analysis. Global sea level rise began around the start of the 20th century. Climate Central calculated that “roughly three-quarters of the tidal flood days now occurring in towns along the East Coast would not be happening in the absence of the rise in the sea level caused by human emissions.” (See “Storms and Flooding” below.) An independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. Back to top. World Meteorological Organization / Flickr, Interactive threat maps at coastal.climatecentral.org, Spreadsheet with country-level threats (CSV), http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032/meta, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3/meta. Notably, the benefits of deep emissions cuts would reach far beyond sea level rise, reducing the danger posed by climate change’s many other risks. By 2100, CoastalDEM’s elevation data show, land currently home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line. Risk Zone Map shows near-term sea level rise and coastal flood threats. 7 014032 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032/meta; Buchanan, M.K., Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M. et al., Climatic Change (2016) 137: 347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 1 When averaged over all of the world’s oceans, absolute sea level has risen at an average rate of 0.06 inches per year from 1880 to 2013 (see Figure 1). In 19 countries, from Nigeria and Brazil to Egypt and the United Kingdom, land now home to at least one million people could fall permanently below the high tide line at the end of the century and become permanently inundated, in the absence of coastal defenses. Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., & Strauss, B. H. (2017). Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K. & Wigley, T. M. L. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections the MAGICC sea level model v2.0. Note that the coral rings “float” with the sea level, and because they are living things, they rise with the sea level as new coral grows. The pace of sea level rise accelerated beginning in the 1990s, coinciding with acceleration in glacier and ice sheet melting. relative sea level rise, which is the increase in sea level recorded relative to land and is affected by land movement at the tide gauge site. In coastal regions, overestimates of elevation produce underestimates of future inundation driven by sea level rise. Climate Central just completed a novel analysis of worldwide exposure to sea level rise and coastal flooding. But the danger of permanent inundation is by no means be limited to Asia. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise. Researchers say it’s the first study to overlay affordable housing data — including both subsidized and free market low-income units — with sea level rise and flood risk data. Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense. Kulp, S. A & Strauss, B.H. This will happen not just in the distant future, but also within the lifetimes of most people alive today.